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Thanks for writing about something that has been weighing heavily on my mind lately - and that I think is going to have serious effects on all of us. I'm curious how these economists came up with their numbers, though - and where they shop!

A 3-4% increase in food prices for all of 2008 wouldn't be bad at all. Unfortunately here's what I'm seeing:

1. Three weeks ago I was in St. Louis and paid $2.99 a jar for reduced sugar organic jam and $2.99 for a container of guacamole* at Trader Joe's. Yesterday the jam was up to $3.69, and the guacamole was $3.49. Those are just two examples of many I noticed.

2. We naturally raise grass-fed sheep on organic pastures and organic hay we put up ourselves, but we supplement with natural grain (no corn), especially at this time of year when our very pregnant ewes (many with twins or even triplets) literally do not have enough physical stomach space to be able to consume enough calories solely from hay.

Every time we go to the feed store, the prices on almost every single thing have gone up - sometimes more than 10% at a time. This has been going on for months. At the same time, the cost of other necessary farm basics, such as fencing supplies, has been skyrocketing (while the quality continues to go down).

The other day I was buying a few weeks' worth of feed, and the lady who has been working behind the counter at the feed store for the 13 years I've been shopping there pointed to the total at the bottom of my receipt and said quietly, "Would you ever spend that much on food to feed yourself for a week?" I admitted that no, I wouldn't. "This has got to stop," she added. But neither of us believes it will.

Meanwhile, prices at the livestock sale barns are not going up.

3. For years I paid $24 to $26 for a 50-pound bag of organic bread flour, ordered through my local natural foods store. A few months ago, the price crept up to $33. Two days ago that exact same bag of flour cost me $53 - very distressing news since we're in the process of building a small artisan bread bakery here on the farm (because we can't make a living farming).

Thanks for letting me put in my two cents (or maybe that should be five cents, LOL). I'm interested to see what others have to say about the rising food prices.

* Slight disclaimer here so I don't lose my foodie status. ; ) As an ex-Californian, I never thought I'd ever buy guacamole, but this stuff is made with five Hass avocados and is much better than guacamole made with any fresh avocados I can find here in Missouri.

Thank you so much for that perspective, Susan!

Like Susan, I'm not seeing 3-4% increases. It's more like $.25 or $.50 here, $1 there on almost everything, which means more of a 25-30% or higher increase. I'm afraid of upsetting my cats' health by switching their food (they eat a better quality dry food), so that's staying the same, but I personally am eating more generic/ bulk foods and only the fresh produce and protein that's on sale.

You're quite welcome!

P.S. So obviously my foodie status is still wavering, since it's 'haas' avocados, not 'hass.' Oops. ; )

Good luck with your farm, Susan. Maybe with a new administration you guys will get some true support from the gov't.

I've noticed a steep rise in food ever since the gas prices started getting astronomical. It seems directly linked. It's interesting how I never really hear or read anything in the media about it.

Continue to do what you love Farmgirl Susan. I'm sure everything will work out.

My bread companies have raised their prices across the board. Time to rethink the free bread and butter at the table. At the same time, I'm afraid I may start to see small bakeries closing as a result of the high cost of doing business combined with lost accounts.

The bakery I work at is trying to replace white flour with wheat in as many recipes as possible - white flour costs have gone through the roof. We can get a 60 lb bag of wheat berries for $15 (we mill our own whole wheat flour on-site), but a 60 lb bag of white flour is over twice that amount.

Any government official or politician who says we're not in a recession obviously doesn't fill his own gas tank or his own grocery cart.

Food prices are skyrocketing because of our dependence on fossil fuels. Ethanol plants are springing up to help with that, but it has increased the demand for corn. That results in land that had been used for soybeans or wheat being used for corn. With less wheat and soybeans to meet the demand, their prices are going up. Add the increased cost of freighting food and you have a food bill that keeps going up.

Alternative forms of energy are our best bet. There is talk of an energy windmill farm being built in my rural county. I'm all in favor of it I'm hoping that whatever administration comes in next will make a serious commitment to research into practical alternative energy sources.

Farmgirl Susan, we feel your pain. If you happen to be located in Warren County, Illinois, I'll buy your bread!

Meanwhile, like everyone else, I keep looking for sales. I make sure I plan meals so that the quantity is right and leftovers get incorporated into another meal so nothing gets wasted.